Red cards' influence in football games by Bultip.com
How important are red cards for the final results in football games?
By gathering a small sample of about 50 games, Bultip.com ended up with strong conclusions about whether and how much a red card is influencing the outcome of a football game. In order to test this, firstly all the games with a red card were highlighted. The points for the team with the dismissed player before the red card was shown were calculated and were compared with the points that this team got at the end of the game.
Briefly, the teams that receive the red card are about to win 38 points in total before one of their players is dismissed. Then, after receiving it, the amount is decreased to just 26. Furthermore, in about 30 of those games the red card is shown for the losing teams hence the influence factor can’t be determined accurately, as the team gets 0 points anyway.
Moreover, there are just 3 events out of those 50 where the team with the red card improves its position after playing with just ten players on the field. This is a significant example of the importance of a red card in football games- just 6% of the times the team with ten players will achieve something more.
A great example of how strong the influence can be over the final results is the game from the Swedish Superettan between the teams of Orgryte and Hammarby, held earlier this season. The goalkeeper for the hosts, Peter Abrahamsson received a red card in the 1st minute. The hosts from Orgryte played practically a full game with a player less, and although they didn’t concede a goal before half time, the end result was 0:3. If you have bet on a win for the hosts or draw or even on a double chance 1X – you definitely wouldn’t be happy about such an event in the beginning of the game. According to the data analysed, generally, with ten players from the first minute of the game, the best the team can do is play for a draw. If the other team is experienced then the chance to win anything is close to zero.
A player sent off, may also have a bad influence from psychological point of view, especially if there are doubts whether the event was fair or not. A perfect example is the match between Manchester United and Real Madrid from the 1/8-finals of the Champions League, last season. The first leg at “Santiago Bernabeu” finished with a draw (1:1). After the first half time of the second leg, the result at “Old Trafford” was 0:0. The second half time, started perfectly for the Red Devils, as they scored a goal for 1:0 in the 48th minute. United played well until the 57th minute and there had been presumptions that the English team would be able to secure a place in the next round. Then, the Portuguese winger Nani received a direct red card, which was shown for a foul against Alvaro Arbeloa. Many people had serious doubts whether the player of Manchester United had committed a foul for a direct red card and whether he should have been dismissed from the game. After that moment, Real Madrid scored two goals and thus continued to the quarterfinals. It can’t be said what would have happened if Nani wasn’t dismissed, but before his red card there weren’t any serious indications that the team from “Old Trafford” would lose the second leg. In conclusion, we can say that this red card possibly influenced the development of the game and at the same time the bets many people placed – bets like United not to lose and less than 2.5 goals in the game.
There are also games where a dismissed player doesn’t have a significant influence over the outcome. This usually happens when the red card is shown in the very end of the game like in the derby of Burgas from the third round of the Bulgarian A PFG between the teams of Chernomorets and Neftohimic. Georgy Valtchev from the squad of the “Sheikhs” received a second yellow card in the 95th minute, when the result was 3:2 for Neftohimic. The end of the game came shortly after that. In such cases, there isn’t much time to play in order to take advantage. The only influence is a free kick or a penalty received for the foul committed, but usually online bookmakers lock the betting options in such cases.
To sum up, the research discovers strong negative correlation between the red card received and the team performance (points won). Furthermore, the earlier the player is sent off, the lesser are the team’s chances to get anything from the game. Finally, there is also conclusive evidence that a dismissed player has strong influence not only on the outcome of the game but also on all type of bets too.
http://bultip.com/ is a sports betting community that aims to help ordinary people gain edge and beat the bookies. The site’s mission is to research as many possible areas that may influence a single sport event and thus provide best quality sport predictions.
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