Data finds Poker, Chess Impossible to Master reports Online Poker AU
Study shows chess and other games impossible to master; Market choices equally irrational
A physicist at Manchester University stated games of such skill as poker, chess, and Go are too complex for any human mind to fully control and comprehend.
Dr. Tobia Galla of the University of Manchester, has run through thousands of simulations of two-player games to see how behavior affects decision-making.
When games became more advanced in complexity and hold many moves and possible moves, they found that the players actions became less rational and the players found it hard to find the best strategy.
Many economists consider financial predictions based on theories of 'equilibrium', assuming that traders are intelligent and rational. But Galla from the university's School of Physics and Astronomy, stated that it was rare to see a case of such rational and it could be that lead economic predictions are wildly inaccurate.
“Equilibrium is not always the right thing you should look for in a game,” Galla said.
“In many situations, people do not play equilibrium strategies, instead what they do can look random or chaotic for a variety of reasons, so it is not always appropriate to base predictions on the equilibrium model.”
He continued by stating that: “With trading on the stock market, for example, you can have thousands of different stocks to choose from, and people do not always behave rationally in these situations or they do not have sufficient information to act rationally. This can have a profound effect on how the markets react.”
“It could be that we need to drop these conventional game theories and instead use new approaches to predict how people might behave.”
Following these findings, the researchers are now expanding their study to multi-player games and matches to consider aspects of in-game thought and how it could assist in better understanding financial operations.
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